Prediction and analysis of domestic oil and gas in

2022-09-22
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Prediction and analysis of the trend of domestic oil and gas industry in 2016

the technical rebound after the international oil price oversold in late January did not bring much warmth to the oil and gas industry in the severe cold, because the overall decline in the operating performance of international oil majors caused by the steep fall of international oil prices in 2015 is a foregone conclusion, and the three major domestic oil companies, PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC, are also doomed to a sharp decline in profits

at the end of January, Sinopec and PetroChina successively released the performance forecast for 2015. PetroChina is expected to realize a 60% - 70% decrease in net profit in 2015 compared with the same period last year; Sinopec also said that its oil and gas production and domestic crude oil production have declined, which is the first year-on-year decline in crude oil production since the restructuring of Sinopec was established in 1998

low oil prices have brought unprecedented difficulties to the production and operation of China's petroleum and petrochemical enterprises. In order to cope with the long bear Road, major oil companies have also adjusted their business strategies, taking improving quality and efficiency upgrading as the core goal. At the same time, mixed ownership reform and industrial structure adjustment have also entered a critical period. In 2016, the oil industry will forge ahead in low oil prices and reform and upgrading

the 2015 domestic and international oil and gas industry development report (hereinafter referred to as the report) released by the economic and Technological Research Institute of CNPC recently shows that in 2015, the world's oil and gas industry entered the trough of the boom cycle, showing a "three major and two falls" trend of oversupply of crude oil, refined oil and natural gas, and two falls in oil and gas prices. At the same time, the world economic recovery is slow, the monetary and fiscal orientations of major economies are divided, and the world oil market has experienced the most serious oversupply in the 21st century. The report predicts that in 2016, the easing situation in the world oil market will be difficult to ease significantly, and the rebound in international oil prices will be weak

from the supply side, the world oil supply continues to grow, and the fundamentals will remain loose. The resilience of unconventional oil production in the United States under ultra-low oil prices is still strong, OPEC's production restriction policy is difficult to produce, Iran's exports increase after the lifting of the ban, and the United States' liberalization of crude oil exports will exacerbate market psychological expectations of excess supply, and it will take time for supply and demand to rebalance. The report predicts that the world oil supply increased by 700000 barrels per day in 2016, including 1.2 million barrels per day in OPEC countries and 500000 barrels per day in non OPEC countries

under the overall loose supply and demand situation, the international oil price will remain low. It is expected that the international oil price will remain low in 2016. The average annual price of West Texas light crude oil (WTI) and Brent crude oil futures in the United States is $40 to $50 per barrel

under the normal condition of continuous downturn in oil prices, China's oil refining capacity fell for the first time in 30 years in 2015, but there was still an excess of 100 million tons

the report shows that by the end of 2015, the total domestic refining capacity was 710 million tons/year, of which 30.2 million tons/year of new refining capacity, 40.57 million tons/year of obsolete production capacity, a net decrease of 10.37 million tons/year. Last year, the elimination of backward production capacity was dominated by local refineries. In order to obtain the right to import crude oil, local refineries eliminated 38.07 million tons/year of refining capacity, Sinopec Xi'an Petrochemical also closed the production capacity of 2.5 million tons/year, and SINOCHEM Hongrun Petrochemical closed the production capacity of 3.3 million tons/year. Nevertheless, China's refining capacity still exceeds demand

statistics show that during the 12th Five Year Plan period, the average operating rate of national refineries continued to decline, from 81.5% in 2011 to 75.4% in 2015. Although it has rebounded from 2014, it is still significantly lower than the international average of 84%. Among them, the operating rate of main refineries is 86.2%, and that of local refineries is 31.4%. The crude oil processing volume of Sinopec and PetroChina accounted for 75% of the countries with higher requirements for valves in 2015, down from 77% in 2014

in 2016, the growth rate of the net increment of oil refining capacity will further slow down. It is estimated that in 2016, the national net increment of oil refining capacity will be 9 million tons/year, and the total oil refining capacity will reach 720 million tons/year, an increase of 1.3%. Among them, the newly increased refining capacity is 30million tons/year, and the backward capacity is eliminated by 21million tons/year. The annual crude oil processing volume was 549 million tons, an increase of 5.3%. The increase was mainly from local refineries that obtained the right to import crude oil, and the proportion of crude oil processing volume of main refineries will further decline

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the report predicts that during the "13th five year plan" period, China's oil refining capacity will decline from an average annual growth of 3.9% during the "12th Five Year Plan" period to an average annual growth of 2.5%. By 2020, China's refining capacity is expected to be about 800million tons/year, and the excess refining capacity is still as high as 80million tons/year

the decline of national refining capacity is not a long-term trend to control the precise and accurate positioning, and the excess refining capacity may turn into excess oil products. In 2015, China's net exports of gasoline, diesel and kerosene were 19.73 million tons, an increase of more than 4 million tons over last year, an increase of 32% year-on-year. In 2016, the surplus of domestic refined oil resources will further intensify, the operating rate of refineries will remain low, and the competition in the refined oil market will become more intense. The report predicts that the annual net export of refined oil will exceed 25million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 31%. China's oil refining capacity is structural surplus, which is manifested in low-end overcapacity, while the selection of 4-column high-intensity light bars as support to achieve the world's advanced level of capacity is not surplus

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