The hottest demand reduces the shock of Shanghai J

2022-07-29
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According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in the first half of the year, there were 280.656 million tire production fatigue testing machines that could test fatigue in various ways, a year-on-year increase of 12.8% and a decrease of nearly 11 percentage points compared with the same period last year; In June, the tire export decreased by 6.4% year-on-year; In June, the national automobile output increased by 14.8% year-on-year, 13% lower than that of the same period last year. The production growth of other rubber products (22215,65.00,0.29%, bar) also slowed down

in addition, according to the statistics of China's National Bureau of statistics, the national automobile output in July was 757000, a decrease of 12.4% over the previous month, an increase of 13.2% over the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped by 1.6 percentage points over the previous month; The output of tires was 49.672 million, a decrease of 2.0% over the previous month and an increase of 14.8% over the same period last year. From January to July, the national automobile output was 6.108 million and the tire output was 330million. It can be seen that China's rubber demand began to weaken in the past seven months

the decline of oil price depresses the rubber price

there is an obvious correlation between crude oil and rubber, and the decline of oil price has a great impact on the rubber market. The US crude oil index fell from 147.94 USD/barrel on July 11 to 107.14 USD/barrel on September 8, a decline of 27.57%

the Shanghai Rubber index dropped from 28000 yuan/ton to around 23000 yuan, a decrease of about 17.8%

crude oil dynamics: on the 9th, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which controls 40% of the world's crude oil supply, will hold a ministerial meeting in the Austrian capital Vienna to decide on crude oil production. At present, the international oil price continues to plunge, but the global economy is facing an increasing risk of cooling down. It may be difficult for OPEC to publicly announce production cuts. At present, NYMEX crude oil futures are concerned about the technical and psychological resistance level of USD/barrel above. I personally believe that only by effectively standing at this level can we bring more bullish sentiment, otherwise it will continue to shock downward

the situation in Thailand is turbulent, and there are variables in the price of rubber.

according to the Bangkok Post on September 8, according to local exporters, the strike in Thailand's railways and ports affected Thai rubber exports, prompting foreign businessmen to purchase rubber from Malaysia and Indonesia

lachai, chairman of the Thai Rubber Association, said that foreign traders had stopped buying rubber from Thailand because they were not confident in timely delivery due to the strike of railway and port trade unions and anti-government demonstrations

members of the Thai Railway Trade Union began to strike on August 28. The trade union of Thailand's port authority went on strike at Bangkok's klong toey port last Wednesday and resumed work last Friday. The work has not yet entered the following operating steps: normal level. However, the damage caused by the strike remains to be estimated

according to ongbandi Co., Ltd., the largest rubber exporter in Thailand, the railway strike has brought the export volume of 2000 tons per day to a standstill

last year, ongbandi exported about 500000 tons of rubber through Bangkok and Penang railways in Malaysia

Thailand is the world's largest rubber producer and exporter, exporting about 200000 tons of rubber per month. Railway transportation is 10000 tons per month

therefore, as the Thai rubber export is affected, it may form a certain support for the spot price. At the same time, from the current political situation in Thailand, it has not been alleviated and may become more and more intense

a brief look at Thailand's political situation:

the Thai political situation is once again in crisis, which is closely related to former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. It can be said that it is caused by the intensification of the contradiction between "anti Thaksin forces" and "Thaksin forces". That is to say, there is a contradiction between the two major forces in the current Thai society: one is the poor people in Thai villages and towns who support the adoption of Puma ignite running shoes by elastopan and cellasto high-performance materials under Thaksin BASF, who stepped down in 2006, and the other is the middle class in Bangkok who are hostile to Thaksin

Thaksin Shinawatra, the former Prime Minister of Thailand, was originally a businessman and achieved great success. He started politics in 1994 and served as Prime Minister of Thailand from 2001 to 2006. During this period, his series of "people-friendly" policies established a high prestige in Thailand, especially won the support of the people in the vast rural areas such as the north and northeast, which accounted for the majority of the country's population, so that his party won several consecutive general elections. But at the same time, Thaksin also attracted the dissatisfaction of many people, especially the middle class in Bangkok, and offended some upper class forces and interest groups. Thailand has gradually formed an anti Thaksin force

since the end of 2005, the NLD, composed of anti Thaksin non-governmental organizations, has held anti-government rallies continuously, which eventually led to the military coup in september2006, overthrowing the Thaksin government. Thaksin later went into exile in Britain and was charged with corruption, abuse of power and other crimes during his reign

in the Thailand general election held at the end of 2007, the people's Power Party supporting Thaksin won the victory with the influence of Thaksin and became the main ruling party of the current government. At the invitation of Thaksin, Samak, who was appointed chairman of the people's power party, ascended to the prime minister's throne

with the coming into power of the people's power party, the contradiction between Thaksin forces and anti Thaksin forces has been intensified again. After the people's Power Party came into power, it immediately promoted the amendment of the constitution, which made the NLD active again. Since May this year, the organization has continued to hold anti-government demonstrations. The NLD claimed that Thaksin Shinawatra was the behind the scenes manipulator of the people's Power Party and that Samak was Thaksin Shinawatra's puppet. It also attacked that the purpose of the people's power party to amend the constitution was to help Thaksin Shinawatra evade justice

observers pointed out that the ultimate purpose of the NLD to escalate the demonstrations and demand that the Samak government step down immediately is to thoroughly "overthrow" Thaksin Shinawatra and prevent his forces from resurgence. Although Thaksin has taken refuge in Britain, he still has great influence in Thailand and has many supporters. Due to the close balance between the two sides, no matter how the crisis is resolved, the contest between Thaksin forces and anti Thaksin forces cannot be ended in a short time, and it is difficult to avoid the situation of continuous instability in Thailand's political situation

seasonal factors

the future market will focus on seasonal factors. June, July and August are the off-season for the demand of natural rubber, while this period is the peak season for the production of natural rubber. Therefore, it is not surprising that the price of natural rubber in August is the lowest in the whole year. Since September, as the gum trees gradually enter the defoliation period, the output gradually decreases, but the demand will slowly move towards the peak season. At the same time, during this period, tire manufacturers will purchase a large number of raw materials Tianjiao, which will strongly support the price of Tianjiao

in addition, the growth of natural rubber (22220,70.00,0.32%, bar) trees has certain requirements for geographical and climatic conditions. Typhoons or tropical storms, continuous rainy days, droughts, frosts, etc. will reduce the output of natural rubber and increase the price of rubber. At present, it is the typhoon prone season in the production area. In addition, the recent continuous rainfall in southern Thailand and northern Malaysia has interrupted the tapping of plantations. The popularity of Tianjiao spot market deserves our attention

Technical Graphics

from the technical form of Tianjiao, the HJ 0811 contract is still in the interval arrangement, and I personally believe that the current 22000 front line is an important technical and psychological support position below. If it is effectively broken, it will lead to the emergence of large stop loss orders and short orders, otherwise it will bring buying gas. Therefore, we should focus on the recent trend of Shanghai Jiaotong so as to make the correct trading strategy

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