The hottest depth analysis of ethylene oxide indus

2022-08-07
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In depth analysis of the characteristics of the ethylene oxide industry and downstream potential

characteristics of the ethylene oxide industry

- hazardous chemicals are difficult to transport over long distances, mainly through ethylene production, so it also determines that the layout of ethylene oxide deep processing follows that of Sinopec

-- ethylene oxide production and downstream derivatives technology are mature, and the technology does not constitute a real external barrier

-- the downstream demand for ethylene oxide increases rapidly, and the self-sufficiency rate of domestic downstream demand is low

-- in the long run, the price of ethylene oxide is related to the price of ethylene glycol, and then to the downstream textile and clothing. At present, the recent price of MNP powder on the platform is about US $78.8; In the span of several years, the price of ethylene oxide depends on the impact of supply shock

-- other production routes of ethylene oxide/ethylene glycol: ethanol to ethylene oxide and coal to ethylene glycol deserve attention, but due to volume factors, the supply pattern will not change in the short term

the downstream demand is growing rapidly and the supply is tight

-- it is estimated that by 2012, China's equivalent consumption of ethylene oxide will reach 6.8 million tons. At that time, the equivalent production capacity of ethylene oxide will only be about 4.7 million tons. It is still difficult for China's polyurethane insulation core material to reach the new national standard flame retardant B1 level. However, it is heavily dependent on imports. It is estimated that the market demand for commercial ethylene oxide in China will reach about 950000 tons in 2010, including 300000 tons for the production of non-ionic surfactants, 280000 tons for polyether polyols, 150000 tons for ethanolamine, 100000 tons for choline chloride, 40000 tons for pharmaceutical intermediates and 80000 tons for other purposes

-- on the supply side, commodity ethylene oxide Sinopec has a 46% market share, PetroChina has a 19% market share, and ordnance industry group and Sanjiang Chemical have a 15% and 10% market share respectively. The increase of ethylene oxide supply is linked to the large-scale refining and chemical project, and the supply situation will remain tight in the next few years

investment suggestion from the perspective of industrial chain, the ethylene oxide industry is still in strong demand in the downstream, there is a bottleneck in the supply of ethylene oxide in the midstream, and the supply of ethylene and ethanol in the upstream is smooth. At present, the profits are still concentrated in the production of ethylene oxide in the midstream for a period of time. We believe that we should give priority to the enterprises that produce ethylene oxide, and consider the enterprises with strong demand in the downstream and special competitive advantages

recent market overview

recently, the domestic environment covers GB, ASTM, DIN, JIS, BS... And other oxyethane, maintaining a stable trend. Due to the unexpected small fault shutdown and maintenance of small units of Shanghai Petrochemical, the maintenance of Zhenhai Refining and chemical unit, and the tight supply in East China, in addition, Maoming Petrochemical unit is still under maintenance, and some local downstream enterprises in South China are unable to purchase ethylene oxide to follow the shutdown and maintenance, The short-term high level of ethylene oxide remained strong due to upstream factors; If all ethylene oxide plants are started normally in the long term, there will be sufficient supply. Shandong Tengzhou Chenlong plant has been officially put into production, so negative factors will fill the fundamentals of ethylene oxide. Relevant institutions believe that ethylene oxide will face callback pressure in the later period

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